Poll reveals Oct 6 election forecast

02 Sep 2019

A recent survey has revealed that Portugal’s ruling Socialists are topping an opinion poll, just five weeks prior to the parliamentary election scheduled for October 6th, Reuters reports. 

The survey, conducted by pollster Pitagorica for TSF radio and the Jornal de Noticias newspaper, saw the centre-left Socialists climb from 43.2% of voting intentions last month, to 43.6%. 

On the other hand, the Social Democrats – being the main opposition – lagged behind with 20.4%. 

Prior to this survey, prior surveys mostly averaged the Socialists’ support ratings at 37-38%, which would signify that in order to pass legislation, they’d have to depend on at least one ally in parliament. 

In order to achieve full parliament majority under the Portuguese voting system, a vote of 44%-45% is typically necessary, although a 42% vote would be theoretically sufficient. 

The Socialists have been in office for the past four years, accompanied by two far-left parties. If they are to win the majority, it would aid the government retain policies needed to balance the budget and generate further foreign investment. 

The poll showed that the Left Bloc’s voting intentions increased to 10%, while the Communist Party saw its voting intentions move only slightly at 6.6%. 

Additionally, a popular new party has emerged since the last election, being the People-Animals-Nature party (PAN). PAN has secured a seat in the European Parliament recently and could potentially win over 4% of the vote in the election, polls revealed.
 
The poll surveyed a total of 1,525 people from Aug. 12 to 24, and a 2.6% margin of error was recorded.